It's Humble Pie time.
On the 4th September 2007, I expressed the view that an opinion poll showing a spike in the ALP's apparent vote was possibly a sign of the random fluctuation in polls, and it was the sort of variation that you'd expect to see about once every 20 polls. Well, since then, the lead seems to stuck in that general vicinity.
Here's a graph showing poll results over time. The range is from a low of 54.5% for the ALP (Morgan 31/8/07) up to a high of 60% (Morgan 23/8 & 7/9). Although this is a fairly wide variation, it falls within the plus or minus 3% range that these polls provide. The average of all these polls over the past month has the ALP at 57.3%.
So the figures shown in the Morgan poll appear to fall within the most common margin of error of + or - 3%. I was wrong to think it was a result falling outside that most common variation range.
This leaves only three areas of uncertainty behind predicting the election:
- People may not be telling the truth to the pollsters
- The swing might not happen evenly, or
- There might be a sudden change of opinion between now and the election.
I'll hold off on making further predictions tonight. But I'll come back to the topic of the possibility that the swing won't be even in a future posting.
Anthony Holmes September 10th, 2007 20:17:08